What were the chances before?

Ever since Manny and Ortiz's names came out as being on the steroids list there has been a lot of talk about it being a huge blow to their hall of fame chances. Now Manny I know was a no doubt hall of famer before this, but I don't think Ortiz was a hall of famer. I'm a huge David Ortiz fan and I love him for helping to bring 2 championships to Boston, but I don't think being good for 6 years is enough to get you into the hall, especially after having a bad first 5 years in the league. So do you think that without his name coming out on the list, Ortiz would have been a hall of famer?